We’re just over a week out from the election, and people are antsy for news about which candidate might have the edge. It’s not surprising, then, that many have turned to the only hard election-related statistics available so far: early voting numbers.
Unfortunately, early voting is a notoriously unreliable indicator of which candidate will prevail. The most pressing problem with the public information is that it only pertains to who has voted so far—not which candidate they voted for, which is only revealed when votes are counted on election day. Some states do release data on the early voters’ party registration; for example, we might hear that 40% of Pennsylvania early voters are registered Democrats, while 30% are registered Republicans and 30% are unaffiliated. But even this isn’t extremely helpful, because we still don’t know which candidates those voters cast ballots for, and any unevenness in the data may simply reflect one party favoring early voting while the other waits until election day (as was the case in 2020, when Republicans in many states forewent early voting in favor of election day participation).
Plus, most states don’t even release party registration data, instead simply tabulating which counties have received early votes, or what the voters’ race and gender statistics look like. Some commentators have tried to spin these into newsworthy narratives—for example, highlighting that more females have voted early so far than males, suggesting a high level of enthusiasm among women due to the prominent issue of abortion rights. But under the slightest scrutiny, this narrative falls apart: women, in fact, always vote earlier at higher rates, and this year’s data looks no different. We men, it turns out, like to procrastinate.
Thus, if there are any valuable takeaways from the early voting data, they need to gleaned using comparisons to the last cycle. Even this poses major challenges, though, because 2020 represented a highly unique environment thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. In several states, early voting had not been tried before on a large scale, leading supporters of the respective candidates to use it asymmetrically: supporters of Joe Biden were more likely to use mail voting due to their assessment that the virus posed a legitimate health risk, while supporters of Donald Trump preferred voting in person on election day, thanks in part to marching orders from Trump himself, who characterized mail voting as a sinister plot by Democrats to rig the election against him (in hindsight, a crushing blunder that probably cost him the election).
But you’re here for analysis, so let’s go through the seven swing states and see if we can find anything meaningful from the early voting data so far. In each case, I’ll give my assessment of whether the picture looks, on balance, good for Trump, good for Kamala Harris, or neutral.
Nevada
I’ll start with Nevada because of the swing states, it has the clearest record of early voting data providing useful information about the eventual outcome. Nevada political expert Jon Ralston, in particular, has been known to correctly predict outcomes in the state by assessing the size of the Democratic “firewall” of early votes coming from the Las Vegas area, which acts as a bulwark against the Republican election day advantage in Nevada’s rural counties.
But this year, something unusual has happened: no Democratic firewall has materialized. Instead, it’s the Republicans who have the early vote advantage, thanks to Republican in-person votes in Clark County (Las Vegas) far outpacing their usual early numbers.
Now, this development isn’t certain doom for Democrats. It could be related to Trump simply changing his tune on early voting: encouraging his supporters to use it, whereas in 2020 he actively discouraged it. In addition, the partisan comparison fails to take into account Independent voters, and some have pointed out that young, Democratic-leaning voters have increasingly preferred to register as Independent in Nevada rather than as Democrats.
So hope lives for Harris supporters in Nevada. But on the whole, the news is good for Trump. And as a reminder, I made a gloomy forecast for Harris in Nevada weeks ago.
Verdict: Good for Trump
Michigan
Michigan provides another example of a state with a track record of early voting before 2020, making it less susceptible to wild swings based on the pandemic or Trump’s flip-flopping instructions to his supporters. Unlike Nevada, though, it doesn’t release party registration data, so we have to make inferences.
The graph below uses data from TargetSmart, a political data firm. TargetSmart uses various factors—race, county of residence, etc.—to model party registration, thereby estimating which party’s voters have turned out.
To summarize the graph, which may be hard to see, TargetSmart’s Michigan data on modeled party early vote indicates that Democrats have turned out 22% of their total registered voters so far—compared to 25% at this point in 2020. Whereas Republicans have turned out 14% of their registered voters—compared to 28% at the same point in 2020.
I find this remarkable and highly surprising, given that it seems to me that, if anything, Republicans should be gaining in early vote share compared to 2020 now that Trump has endorsed the practice. But in Michigan, Republicans actually outpaced Democrats in 2020 early voting and have now fallen drastically behind, according to this modeling. I can’t think of a good explanation besides a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats in this state.
Verdict: Good for Harris
Wisconsin
A similar although less dramatic tale seems to be unfolding in Wisconsin.
In 2020, as per TargetSmart modeling, Republicans and Democrats had utilized early voting at about equal levels: each party had turned out about 30% of their registered voters at this point. In this cycle, though, early voting is down everywhere—not surprising given the absence of a generational pandemic. But while Democrats have turned out an estimated 17% of their voters, Republicans have turned out only 11%.
As with Michigan, I see no explanation for this gap other than a Democratic enthusiasm edge in the state. With Trump now encouraging his supporters to use mail voting, it bodes poorly for him that Republicans have lost ground relative to Democrats in this department compared to 2020. It’s not a big edge, but in a close state, Democrats will take it.
A quick aside. The numbers from Michigan and Wisconsin show that in 2020, contrary to trends in much of the country, Republicans actually voted early at equal or higher rates than Democrats. In my view, that suggests that Republicans in those states are of a fundamentally different political persuasion than hardcore MAGA supporters elsewhere. Remember, Trump’s pre-election speculation that Nancy Pelosi and a cabal of Democrats were stoking fear of COVID only to funnel votes into a corrupt mail system—a truly surreal accusation—were gospel for MAGA at that time. And Republican turnout rates from many states reflect that. But not Michigan and Wisconsin. Just the fact that Republicans in those states favored early voting methods during the pandemic and cut back when it was over indicates a certain independence from Trump that Republicans in other states haven’t necessarily shown. Democrats performed relatively well in both states in the 2022 midterms—especially Michigan.
Verdict: Good for Harris
Pennsylvania
The big one. So goes Pennsylvania, so goes the election, most likely.
Unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania reports party registration data for early voting, so that could yield more informative data. But also unlike those states, Pennsylvania didn’t widely use early voting before 2020, and it shows in the data.
These numbers are more intuitive than the other states given developments surrounding the pandemic and Trump’s rhetoric: Democrats in 2020, encouraged by their party leaders, voted early at fairly high rates—while Republicans, discouraged by Trump and not already familiar with early voting, waited until election day. In 2024, with the pandemic over, Democrats have predictably cut back on early voting while Republicans have maintained about the same (albeit low) rate in the face of Trump, Elon Musk, and others urging supporters to vote early in the state.
To me, this says nothing important. It’s exactly what we’d expect the numbers to show. Only election day will tell us where the enthusiasm lies in the state.
Verdict: Neutral
Georgia
When early voting results started appearing in Georgia a few weeks ago Republicans were jubilant. Alarming to Democrats was a markedly reduced share of turnout from Black voters compared to the previous cycle. And since Georgia’s electorate is highly racially polarized—about 30% Black, 65% White—this was a big deal.
But in the past few days, the racial gap has narrowed. Votes have rolled in from diverse areas like Dekalb County and Fulton County. It seems that Black Georgians were biding their time and may well be on their way to another solid voting turnout.
Overall, Republicans continue to show relative improvement in the early vote via TargetSmart party modeling. Yes, they’ve reduced their early voting turnout compared to 2020, but by a slightly lower percentage than Democrats. Still, just as in Pennsylvania, this is, in my opinion, to be expected given the national environment. So I see no edge for either side.
Verdict: Neutral
Arizona
It’s a bit tougher not to credit Republicans in Arizona, though, for their early vote performance.
Both Democrats and Republicans have turned out about 28% of their voters so far. But at this point in 2020, Democrats had turned out 43%, while Republicans had only turned out 33%. So Democrats have seen a much larger decrease in early vote participation.
This may be again be attributable to the national environment—Trump encouraging his supporters to vote early, etc.—but then again, the relative improvement for Republicans is significantly larger than that seen in Pennsylvania or Georgia. Therefore, I award this one to Trump. Democrats can take solace in the fact that the outcome of Arizona elections typically hinges on moderate Republicans, who are found in large numbers in the state. These voters, apparently not fans of Trump or his minions, broke decisively for Biden in 2020 and for Mark Kelly in 2022. Perhaps they’ll do so for Harris, as well, which would make the apparent Republican enthusiasm edge a mirage—although we’ll see if they deem her sufficiently moderate to tolerate.
Verdict: Good for Trump
North Carolina
Another state that reports party registration for early votes, and another state with Republicans doing, on balance, better than in 2020.
As with Arizona, I’m not surprised by Republicans dropping off less steeply than Democrats in 2024. What I am surprised by is just how much Democratic early voting has declined compared to 2020. At this point in 2020, Democrats had turned out a huge 48% of their registered voters. Today, the number sits at just 34%. Republicans, meanwhile, have fallen only from 42% to 38% turnout, so they have a banked advantage. Maybe Democrats in North Carolina, particularly Black Democrats, will start showing up at the polls in the final week—as we’ve already seen in Georgia (after some pundits prematurely reported that the sky was falling). Until then, pro-Harris energy looks a bit weak.
Verdict: Good for Trump
Summary
Perhaps my reading of the early vote tea leaves is biased toward my previous commentary and predictions about the respective swing states. In Nevada and Arizona, which I forecasted as challenging for Democrats, I give Trump the edge. In Michigan and Wisconsin, which I highlighted as demographically favorable to Democrats, I give Harris the edge.
But I truly think that the early vote data reinforces a lot of the commentary in those earlier pieces. In the less diverse Midwest states, we’re seeing indicators of an enthusiasm gap favoring Harris. In the more diverse Sun Belt states, especially those in close proximity to the southern border and with prominent Hispanic populations, indicators suggest lagging enthusiasm for Harris.
The trend to watch, in my opinion, is the turnout rate in urban areas over the final week of early voting. Black participation across the nation has lagged so far compared to 2020, but it’s still very early, and in Georgia, we’re already seeing Black voters make their way to the polls (and to the mailboxes) after forgoing the first few days. The Harris campaign’s ground game has its work cut out for it.
–Jim Andersen
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